Podcast. The Second Growth Curve.
The $2 Trillion Wipeout: Debating the AI-Native Structural Reset
Listen on Apple Podcasts · Spotify · RSS
Narration generated with Google NotebookLM from the essay below. Analysis, sources, and the underlying argument are by Vijayanta Gupta.
Two AI hosts unpack the argument in the essay The second growth curve: why the first growth curve of B2B software is ending, what broke first on the second, and the five strategic choices now on the CEO and board desk. Numbers cited on air. Sources below.
Show notes
- Global IT spending USD 6.31 trillion in 2026; enterprise software USD 1.44 trillion, growing 15.1 per cent. Source: Gartner, April 2026.
- Median public SaaS growth fell from 30 per cent in 2021 to 12.2 per cent at end of 2025; valuation multiples down to 6.4 times ARR. Source: SaaS Capital, 2026; Public SaaS Multiples, Q1 2026.
- Average AI product gross margin 52 per cent against the SaaS benchmark of 80; inference alone consuming roughly 23 per cent of revenue at scaling-stage AI B2B companies. Source: ICONIQ, 2026, via Monetizely, 2026.
- February 2026: roughly USD 285 billion of B2B software market cap evaporated in 48 hours after Anthropic launched Claude Cowork; an estimated USD 2 trillion erased by mid-March. Source: Taskade, 2026; Fortune, February 2026.
- Cursor reached USD 2 billion ARR in three years; Harvey USD 11 billion valuation in two; Sierra crossed USD 150 million ARR in seven quarters; Salesforce Agentforce USD 550 million ARR. Sources: The Next Web, 2026; Sierra, 2026; SaaStr, 2026.
- Thoma Bravo completed four platform SaaS take-privates in 2025, including USD 12.3 billion for Dayforce. Source: Thoma Bravo, 2025.